Navigating Uncertainty: U.S. Housing and Remodeling Market Outlook

“It’s been a bumpy year,” he noted in his opening remarks. Despite ongoing challenges, there is reason for optimism.

Consumer Confidence and Economic Reality

Consumer confidence sits at a 10-year low. Despite pessimism, spending continues. Beard shared the net worth by generation, which showed that boomers are sitting on a “tremendous amount of wealth.” The industry sees strength in affluent customers. Job growth, however, has slowed and immigration restrictions are contributing to slower population growth.

Housing Market Imbalance

Housing affordability remains the “elephant in the room,” he said. For example, a starter home purchased in 2025 would cost an estimated $3,500 each month between the mortgage, taxes, insurance and more—a figure unattainable for many in the starter home market.

Household formation will increase, especially in the 70+ age group who are looking to age in place and those in the 25-54 age range, who are in their prime years for forming their own families. New construction, however, isn’t keeping pace with the estimated 1.2 million new households that will form annually through 2029.

Window & Door Market Outlook

Remodeling activity is softening, particularly in the West and Northwest, with professional remodelers reporting slower lead generation and consumer uncertainty as the top bottleneck. But optimism for 2026 is building. Beard predicts homeowners will start tapping into their high levels of home equity, especially when monetary and geopolitical tensions stabilize.

The window and door industry showed resilience in Q3 2025, with both unit volumes and revenues rising despite material and labor inflation. Revenue per unit increased, indicating a shift toward higher-value products.

Material and labor each saw inflation, at 8% and 4% year-over-year respectively. Supply bottlenecks also are appearing, according to the survey. Workforce adaptations are also present, with 47% planning to reduce their sales and marketing resources and 25% planning a reduction in production lines.

The move-up/luxury and new construction/custom/luxury markets are growing and Beard says affluent customers are currently carrying the industry.

He recommends companies prioritize the ability to change and adapt, keep their cost structures under control and not to take big risks or take on new debt. “Tread water just a little bit longer,” he advises.

Nevertheless, “Optimism is ever-blooming in this industry,” Beard said, with survey respondents expecting a 5.4% full-year revenue increase next year.