The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast panel is projecting a decline of 5.6 percent this year in nonresidential spending for buildings, followed by a modest recovery of 6.4 percent in 2012. Because these predictions come on the heels of a more than 20 percent downturn in the overall nonresidential building sector last year, and a more than 30 percent drop in spending on commercial buildings, this year’s and next year’s expected declines are quite modest in comparison.
Commercial facilities—office, retail, and hotel—are expected to see a more significant decline ( 6.5 percent) this year, but also a stronger recovery (almost 12 percent) next year. Spending on the construction of manufacturing facilities is expected to see a steep decline this year of almost 16 percent, followed by a relatively modest rebound of 8 percent. The traditionally more stable institutional sector is expected to fall just over 3 percent this year, and then offset this decline with a 4 percent increase in 2012.
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